The Outlook for U.s. Meteorological Research in a Commercializing World

on a roll. In its relatively short lifetime, it has transformed the way society thinks about weather and climate. At the beginning of the twentieth century, most people assumed that the assimilative capacity of the atmosphere was infi nite, climate was relatively constant, and most weather events were unpredictable. Today, thanks in large part to meteorological research, most educated people know that the assimilative capacity of the atmosphere is fi nite, even on global scales; climate is variable, sometimes abruptly so; and weather is considerably more predictable than previously thought. Furthermore, the immediate future looks bright. New observing technologies are being developed and deployed rapidly, providing a wealth of data on traditional and new variables. Today’s operational observing systems provide unprecedented global coverage and space and time resolution, supporting daily weather services and a variety of weather, climate, and environmental research. The United States and other nations are poised to integrate and enhance the operational global observing network, to make it even more useful for weather, climate, and environmental studies (Lautenbacher 2003). Research, state and local government, and private sector observing capabilities also continue to expand (NRC 1999a; Laursen et al. 2003; NRC 2003). Information technology is keeping pace. Use of the rapidly growing datasets is supported by highspeed communication links, which facilitate both the real-time acquisition of data for use in predictions and longer-term research access. Rapid advances in computational capabilities are continually improving numerical weather and climate prediction systems, by enabling increased model resolution and more sophisticated numerics, physics, and parameterizations (NRC 1998, 1999a). These same advances have transformed meteorological research—investigations that were painstakingly slow (or impossible) several decades ago can now be performed rapidly AFFILIATIONS: MORSS—National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; HOOKE—American Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C. CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Dr. Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR MMM/ISSE, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 E-mail: [email protected] DOI:10.1175/BAMS-86-7-921